2011年4月28日星期四

札记-和朋友谈一篇批评政府的博文

评估一个政府,就看它是否做到
l         平日让民众安居乐业
l         遇到灾难时(天灾人祸/金融危机),领导民众走出困境
l         为国家社会长远利益筹算

上面几点,行动党政府都大致做到了。
评估要有参照架构。不论和第三,第二或第一世界的西方政府比较,新加坡政府可说是毫不逊色。

那么,这篇文章的作者在埋怨什么呢?
1.         老李太过成功而妄自尊大,自以为是上帝,独断独行
2.         政府太过理性,功利计算,因此疏离选民(例如建赌场)
3.         只讲科学,不懂人文
4.         恋栈权力,百般设计甚至用不公平的方式来确保选举胜利
5.         被权力腐化,(表现在高薪自奉)

好的领导人必须是见人之未能所见,能人之未能所能。换言之,领导的看法不会总是和群众相同的。(往往独排众议的你,对这点你必然有所体会)。怎么办呢?尽量说服他们,有理说不清(如对方没有能力理解)的时候,只好做了再说。待看到成果之后,民众自然会明白。

1962年,老李说过,“在新加坡,如果我有足够大的权力,可以不用去考虑别人是否喜欢我们正在做的事,那么,毫无疑问,我会为他们带来更大的利益,也会取得更大的效率。”

我们可以从这段话,来理解他掌政时的所作所为。

当时的民众素质,是你们新一代所不能想象的。基本上,都是被族群情绪支配(马来族,华族沙文)。基本上都是好人,就是眼界狭隘,无法跨越族群自我(ego)而且容易激动。


面对这样的群众,该如何治理?Different folks, different strokes。原则上,就是 Speak softly and carry a big stick。要不然,没有人理你。

一路走来,从老李到吴作栋到小李,随着人民素质的提高,政制随之逐渐开放。行动党对於国亊,向来谨慎,步步为营,难怪年轻人不耐烦。

西方国家民主的演进,都是三五百年的亊,血腥动荡。我们才有五十年历史,尚称和平顺畅,同时国家欣欣向荣,可见慢一点有慢一点的好处。

至於理性与人文素质,这位仁兄夸夸其谈。说老实话,在这方面他连替老李他们擦鞋的资格都不够,还煞有其事的笑他们不懂人文,只会机械的运用科学思考。

很诚恳的告诉你,此人思路不清(所以这篇文章我要读三遍),搬弄了一些是实而非的流行的滥调,还扬扬自得,不知天高地厚,说实话非常可笑。

还有,行动党如果如他所说的,被权力腐化了。那么新加坡有可能达到今日的成就吗?

他提出的具体批评,比较有意思的有三:赌场、高薪与集选区。

高薪与集选区两个问题,我们从前讨论过。我觉得政府放在台面上的理由是诚恳的。你若不接受,我也没办法。

关于赌场,我曾经看过美国关于这方面的研究资枓,可供参考:
哈佛大学医学院的一位精神病学教授霍华德·谢弗(Howard Shaffer)报告,尽管合法赌博业大幅度增加,在美国的病态赌博所占的百分比率,在过去的35年来一直保持相对稳定。在1990年代后期该比率有一个高峰,但自此之后水平又逐渐下降。
谢弗博士将该曲线与一副典型的病毒感染曲线,绘制在同一副图表上进行对比:开始水平较高,这是因为一开始那些最容易感染病毒的人大批生病,但随着时间的推移,人们逐渐适应了病毒,曲线水平逐渐下降。“

好赌的人一定会赌,没有赌场他们会照旧上云顶,上赌船或非法赌博。人基本上是怕输的,能够克制自已的人,在输了几次之后,会安于小赌恬情。

不顾死活的赌鬼是少数,往往有内分泌失常的背景,是一种病态。在美国人口中,约有零点零几巴仙(待查)属於此类。科学家认为,和忧郁症一样,将来有望医药治疗

以前千字票/赌球是非法的。这些利润奇高的非法组织非常有势力。政府千方百计都无法扑灭,后来干脆合法化让马会与竞争,把利润用于建设性用途,同时又可以杜灭这些黑社会组织。



美国耶鲁法学教授蔡美儿的“虎妈战歌”,相信你一定听说过。她的育儿方式非常“亚洲”。为了让孩子成材,威迫利诱连哄带骗,无所不用其极。


新加坡的故事,在我眼中,其实就是老李 bringing up Singapore 的故事。

当孩子长大了,开明的家长,会随着改变对待的方式。所以我一路来都在强调一点- 渐进开放。

事实也是如此。今天的新加坡,比起六七十年代,无可否认的,是开放得多。

在建囯初期,大人在做生死存亡的奋斗,来了几个小不更事的小毛头,有事无事在那里“搞搞震”,烦不胜烦,只好给他两巴掌,或一脚踢开。

记得以前小李说过,“国会若有太多反对党,我就得花更多时间精力对付他们,这会影响我做更重要的工作。”

现在他说,“有强大的反对党对新加坡是有利的”。此一时彼一时。

行动党善用“在位者的便宜”,是不可否认的。不过,情况正在演变中,如果民众表观得更成熟,逐渐就不必用家长式的手段了

2011年4月26日星期二

2004年的春天,布拉克5

2004

这一票该怎样投?

  将要第一次投票的女儿问我,这一票该怎样投?
  就和许多事情一样,原则很简单。我说。
  新加坡就好像一个资金非常庞大,运作异常繁复的大企业。现在要遴选出一个管理这个企业的团队。遴选的标准该是什么呢?
  相信大家都知道,最主要是能力与诚信。这个团队当然必须要有经营这企业的能力,同时,更重要的是诚信:把这么多钱交给他们去管理,这些人会不会趁机上下其手,徇私舞弊,寻租自利呢?
  对个人的能力评估固然不容易,不过还算比较具体客观:一个人学业事业的成就、所做过的事、经验与资历,是骗不了人的。
  比较麻烦的,是对其品德自律能力的估量。所谓真金不怕火,但是权力是比火更严峻的考验,那是一枚魔戒The Lord of the Rings,作者约翰·罗纳德·瑞尔·托尔金John Ronald Reuel Tolkien),我女儿主修英国文学,用文学例子,比较能引起共鸣。
  台湾之子陈水扁,当年赴汤蹈火,奋不顾身地与权势抗争。但是在得到了权力,戴上了魔戒,在短短的几年之间就变成了台湾之恥。像这种例子,我们这一代看得太多了,五六十年代亚洲、非洲与拉丁美洲反殖民帝国主义的许多民族英雄,在取得政权之后,其贪婪跋扈的程度,比起他们趕走的旧主子,往往有过而无不及,如菲律宾的马可斯。
  大大小小的权力都能腐蚀。对于国人,记忆犹新的NKF事件,是彰示这个人性弱点的最好例子。杜莱从一个曾经是个充滿爱心、品德高尚、能力出众的人,在得到权力之后,却把一个慈善组织变成自己的私人王国。
  不管是部长还是议员,不论管理的是国家财政还是市镇会(Town Council),都莫不充满大大小小的寻租舞弊的空头。所以官商勾结,权钱交易,在许多国家都成了生活中见怪不怪的的日常现象。
    其实,还有一个更大的隱忧,那是国人不大提起,许多年轻人不能体会到的:新加坡这个亮晶晶的小红点,是一块多么令人垂涎的肥肉。巨额的储备金,庞大的国家资金企业,世界级的社会经济建设,战略性的地理位置以及其在国际的影响力等等,都是很多国内国外政治经济利益集团觊觎的对象。
  虽说新加坡朋友满天下,不过,试问哪一个友邦邻邦财团教派,不暗地里希望能在我国权力圈子里插一手,作为那无休无止博弈的棋子。况且,人人都知道,这世间没有永远的朋友或敌人。
  所以,近来参选人的动机成了议题,不是没有道理的。
  随意揣度别人的动机,君子所不为。而且,疑点利益归于被告。不过事关重大,提醒一下,尤其是对我国相对纯良的年轻一代,确实有必要。
  现在,几乎每一个政党,都说他们对其所推出的候选人,都作了详尽的调查。但愿如此!如果把各政党看成猎头公司,在这一片自卖自夸的吵杂声中,你相信谁?
  这一票轻似鸿毛,却重如泰山。我老气横秋的对女儿说,经营了五十年,凭着努力与运气,我国从无到有。我们当然不希望看到,欣欣向荣的国运,会因一场意气用事的选举,盛极而衰。不过我们这一代毕竟时日不多,这一票却会影响你们以及你们孩子的前途,希望你能好好的行使你公民的权利。
  她当然知道我讲什么。
  我国对年轻一代不留余力的苦心栽培,举世皆知。近来美国的《纽约时报》与英国的《经济学家》的评论都认为,他们的政府在这方面,应向新加坡看齐。可是近来,在一个《问总理》的电视节目上,一个年轻人居然说,年经一代是最被政府忽视的一群!当时我不禁从沙发上跳起来,指着电视大骂。
  前几天,听到女儿的一个朋友说,我囯政府在位五十年,一党独大太久了,我们应该趁这次大选,教训他们一下。
  端起碗吃饭,放下筷子骂娘。据说,像这样的人,才是能够监督权力的好公民!

早报言论 2011-04-26

2011年4月25日星期一

All sizes | 25-02.jpg | Flickr - Photo Sharing!

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VS NAIPAUL’S ADVICE TO WRITERS

Vs-naipaul-telegraphAmit Varma in India Uncut:
My post a few minutes ago about the misuse of the word populist reminded me of a list of suggestions VS Naipaul drew up many years ago for beginning writers at Tehelka. I first read that list in my friend Amitava Kumar‘s introduction to a fine collection of essays edited by him, The Humour and the Pity: Essays on V.S. Naipaul. Here it is, reproduced in full:
VS Naipaul’s Rules for Beginners
1. Do not write long sentences. A sentence should not have more than ten or twelve words.
2. Each sentence should make a clear statement. It should add to the statement that went before. A good paragraph is a series of clear, linked statements.
3. Do not use big words. If your computer tells you that your average word is more than five letters long, there is something wrong. The use of small words compels you to think about what you are writing. Even difficult ideas can be broken down into small words.
More here.

Waterdrops - today and tomorrow

www.todayandtomorrow.net/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/corrie_white_1.jpg

The study of the structure of subjective experience - but does it float

c0573862.cdn.cloudfiles.rackspacecloud.com/1/0/128/1335162/fieldio_6_905.jpg

enthusiasm documented

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2011年4月20日星期三

NOTES FROM CHRIS

Slim%20arms%20for%20web
More here.




雄性激素高的女运动员将面临禁赛

如果女运动员的天然睾丸激素水平在男性的范围之内,那么她们可能将没有资格与女性一同比赛国际奥林匹克委员会4月5日提出的女性雄性素过多症建议已被国际田径联合会接纳,专家也对新规定表示欢迎,但在实践中如何运用依旧存在争议。2009年,南非运动员塞蒙娅(Caster Semenya)在摘得800米跑世界冠军之后,被要求进行性别测试,测试证明她有性发育紊乱,体内没有卵巢或子宫,到有大量的睾丸激素。塞蒙娅有近一年的时间没能参加比赛,她刚刚重返赛场。官方否认新规定是对塞蒙娅案例作出的直接反应。因为体育场上的性别紊乱问题屡见不鲜。

Edward Kinsella

[skinandbonesblog.jpg]
http://edwardkinsellaiii.blogspot.com/

Edward

[davegrohl.jpg]
http://edwardkinsellaiii.blogspot.com/

Fung Chin Pang

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http://cellar-fcp.deviantart.com/

2011年4月19日星期二

Hideaki Kawashima

Armory ’11 – Hideaki Kawashima @ Richard Heller

Hideaki Kawashima

Armory ’11 – Hideaki Kawashima @ Richard Heller

Hideaki Kawashima

Armory ’11 – Hideaki Kawashima @ Richard Heller

Sarah Klassen/Haute Design: Detail of the Week

4.bp.blogspot.com/

I need a guide: ray morimur

ray morimura 4
lh3.ggpht.com

Nickel Cobalt

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Tumblr

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硬件: 让每个窗户都变成发电机

MIT研究人员在《应用物理快报》上描绘了一套透明的光电系统,有朝一日或许能让建筑物窗户变成发电设备中文)。关键的技术是基于有机分子的光伏电池,让可见光通过,利用红外光的能量。创造透明光伏电池的难点一是转换效率低(不到1%),二是阻挡太多的阳光导致其不透明。研究人员找到了一种化学配方,能提供较高的光电转换率,以及更好的可见光穿透能力。研究人员认为,这项技术不是国家能源需求的终极方法,而是家庭能源需求的解决方案。这项研究仍处于早期的阶段,原型电池转换效率为1.7%。研究人员希望能达到12%,使它能与现有商业化太阳能电池板相比。blackhat 发表于 2011年4月19日 15时42分 星期二

酒精增强大脑记忆

常识认为饮酒有害于学习和记忆,但一项新的研究发现,恰恰相反,饮酒能增强大脑的记忆和学习研究人员称,酒精会削弱人们记住大脑中已储存信息的能力,例如同事的名字,一个单词的意思,或者汽车停放的位置;但却可能会潜在增强之后的学习和记忆能力。研究发现,重复饮酒会增加大脑关键部分的突触可塑性。这项发现进一步证实了一种逐渐形成的共识,即毒品和酒精上瘾本质上是学习和记忆混乱。研究人员称,酒精是一种助推器,它劫持了多巴胺系统,告诉大脑饮酒是有回报的。喝酒通常不是一个人自饮,我们坐在酒吧里和朋友聊天,吃东西,听音乐,这些都是奖励。奖励越多,多巴胺释放的越多,我们也变得越渴望饮酒。

机器人能自动对垃圾分类

《新科学家》报导,一种新机器人能自动对垃圾分类,将有价值的原材料挑出来而不是任其埋到垃圾场。ZenRobotics的自动垃圾分类回收机器人,利用人工智能和传感器阵列,监视传送带上的垃圾,选择性的挑选出垃圾,放置到一个特制的滑道,将这些垃圾运到一个专门的回收装置中,无用的垃圾则留在传送带上,最终被埋葬。

糖是有毒物质?

2009年5月26日,加州大学旧金山分校医学院的小儿激素紊乱和儿童肥胖专家Robert Lustig发表了一个演讲,“糖:苦涩的真相(YouTube)”,谈论了糖对人类健康的负面影响。在演讲中,Lustig博士有13次称呼糖是一种“毒药”,5次称糖是“邪恶之物”,是“人类已知最妖魔化的添加剂”。他的观点从某种程度上是正确的,糖是一种不能滥用的“有毒物质”。任何东西如果过量食用都是有害的,美国过去三十年肥胖和糖尿病人数暴增,其原因就在于此。高糖饮食也可能会导致慢性疾病如心脏病、高血压等。糖的半数致死量(LD50)是10,000 mg/kg(体重),咖啡因的LD50是100 mg/kg,尼古丁的是1 mg/kg。

专家看中国呼吁加公民强道德建设

BBC中文网  更新时间 2011年4月18日, 格林尼治标准时间15:11
中国官方媒体--新华社发表专文,引述中国总理温家宝的话,呼吁加强中国的公民道德建设。
新华社在这篇名为《如何用道德的力量构筑大国之魂》的专论文章中指出,从最近的“染色馒头”事件,再次显示了“道德滑坡”。
本身就是经济学者出身的谢宗林向BBC中文网表示,中国企业现在的问题是并没有把消费者当成和自己一样。文中附图则是台湾学者谢宗林翻译的英国著名经济学家、《国富论》作者亚当•斯密(台湾称亚当•史密斯)著作--《道德情操论》中文版封面。
他认为,中国强调共产党的阶级主义、分清敌我,反而让孔孟儒家思想当中的仁义受到了破坏。
虽然台湾本身在70、80年代也曾经发生过含剧毒物质—多氯联苯的炒菜油、溲水油(泔水提炼油脂)的事件。
对此,谢宗林说,这些事件在台湾都是“罕见的特例”,不是中国大陆一般地普遍现象。
谢宗林还说,中国到目前为止最大的问题就是缺乏“同理心”,不能为另一方着想。
先前中国政府、媒体就曾经多次呼吁民众加强公民道德,但是却继续发生为图利而贩卖“黑心产品”的情形。
而新华社则在专文中,引述温家宝的话说,他认为“诚信和道德市现代社会应该解决的紧迫问题”。
专文还特别指出,“一个国家,如果没有国民素质的提高和道德的力量,绝不可能成为一个真正强大的国家、一个受人尊敬的国家”。

屡开屡关的“金瓶梅遗址公园” 刘罡

美国《华盛顿邮报》4月16日的报道说,中国安徽西溪南村村民潘志义经过多年考证得出结论,他所在的村子就是中国古典色情小说《金瓶梅》的故事发生地。但报道说,虽然中国的许多名人故里都发了旅游财,然而潘志义的这一发现迄今为止带给西溪南村的却更多是麻烦,而非利益。报道说,一家与政府有关联的旅游公司从潘志义的发现中看到了商机,它不事声张地与当地政府达成在西溪南村建“金瓶梅遗址公园”的协议,但就在公园开张前夕,中国新华社发文谴责这一项目是不道德的,称潘志义的研究结果“只不过是商业投机”,公园虽然还是开了,但旋即被关闭。

报道说,一年后的2007年5月,“金瓶梅遗址公园”再度开张,虽然当地一家报纸称公园业务取得了“爆炸性”成功,但其他地方的媒体却对此事进行了十分负面的报道,在二度开业不到一年的时候公园遭遇致命打击:它的财务赞助人受到政府的反腐败调查,破产了,公园又一次关门。报道援引潘志义的话说,历代政府之所以都将《金瓶梅》列为禁书,并不是因为这本书色情,而是因为该书作者揭露了政府官员的腐败,将他们的丑恶嘴脸暴露在阳光下。

Anthony Lister.

[Wonder+What+by+Anthony+Lister.jpg]
http://www.anthonylister.com

Anthony Lister

[anthonyLister1.jpg]
http://www.anthonylister.com

Jun Kumaori (KMR)

Via : http://alexcherry.com http://kumaori.info/

Andrea Giacobbe

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http://andreagiacobbe.net

Language universality idea tested with biology method


A long-standing idea that human languages share universal features that are dictated by human brain structure has been cast into doubt.
A study reported in Nature has borrowed methods from evolutionary biology to trace the development of grammar in several language families.
The results suggest that features shared across language families evolved independently in each lineage.
The authors say cultural evolution, not the brain, drives language development.
At the heart of both studies is a method based on what are known as phylogenetic studies.
Lead author Michael Dunn, an evolutionary linguist at the Max Planck Institute for Psycholinguistics in the Netherlands, said the approach is akin to the study of pea plants by Gregor Mendel, which ultimately led to the idea of heritability of traits.
"By looking at variation amongst the descendant plants and knowing how they were related to each other, [Mendel] could work out the mechanisms that must govern that variation," Dr Dunn explained to BBC News.
"He inferred the existence of some kind of information transfer just from knowing family trees and observing variation, and that's exactly the same thing we're doing."
Family trees
Modern phylogenetics studies look at variations in animals that are known to be related, and from those can work out when specific structures evolved.
For their studies, the team studied the characteristics of word order in four language families: Indo-European, Uto-Aztec, Bantu and Austronesian.
They considered whether what we call prepositions occur before or after a noun ("in the boat" versus "the boat in") and how the word order of subject and object work out in either case ("I put the dog in the boat" versus "I the dog put the canoe in").
The method starts by making use of well-established linguistic data on words and grammar within these language families, and building "family trees" of those languages.
"Once we have those trees we look at distribution of these different word order features over the descendant languages, and build evolutionary models for what's most likely to produce the diversity that we observe in the world," Dr Dunn said.


The models revealed that while different language structures in the family tree could be seen to evolve along the branches, just how and when they evolved depended on which branch they were on.
"We show that each of these language families evolves according to its own set of rules, not according to a universal set of rules," Dr Dunn explained.
"That is inconsistent with the dominant 'universality theories' of grammar; it suggests rather that language is part of not a specialised module distinct from the rest of cognition, but more part of broad human cognitive skills."
The paper asserts instead that "cultural evolution is the primary factor that determines linguistic structure, with the current state of a linguistic system shaping and constraining future states".
However, co-author and evolutionary biologist Russell Gray of the University of Auckland stressed that the team was not pitting biology against culture in a mutually exclusive way.
"We're not saying that biology is irrelevant - of course it's not," Professor Gray told BBC News.
"But the clumsy argument about an innate structure of the human mind imposing these kind of 'universals' that we've seen in cognitive science for such a long time just isn't tenable."
Steven Pinker, a cognitive scientist at Harvard University, called the work "an important and welcome study".
However, Professor Pinker told BBC News that the finer details of the method need bearing out in order to more fully support their hypothesis that cultural boundaries drive the development of language more than biological limitations do.
"The [authors] suggest that the human mind has a tendency to generalise orderings across phrases of different types, which would not occur if the mind generated every phrase type with a unique and isolated rule.
"The tendency may be partial, and it may be elaborated in different ways in differently language families, but it needs an explanation in terms of the working of the mind of language speakers."

2011年4月17日星期日

The evolution of language - Babel or babble?




Languages all have their roots in the same part of the world. But they are not as similar to each other as was once thought

Apr 14th 2011 | from the print edition of The Economist.
WHERE do languages come from? That is a question as old as human beings’ ability to pose it. But it has two sorts of answer. The first is evolutionary: when and where human banter was first heard. The second is ontological: how an individual human acquires the power of speech and understanding. This week, by a neat coincidence, has seen the publication of papers addressing both of these conundrums.
Quentin Atkinson, of the University of Auckland, in New Zealand, has been looking at the evolutionary issue, trying to locate the birthplace of the first language. Michael Dunn, of the Max Planck Institute for Psycholinguistics in the Netherlands, has been examining ontology. Fittingly, they have published their results in the two greatest rivals of scientific journalism. Dr Atkinson’s paper appears in Science, Dr Dunn’s in Nature.
Travellers’ tales
The obvious place to look for the evolutionary origin of language is the cradle of humanity, Africa. And, to cut a long story short, it is to Africa that Dr Atkinson does trace things. In doing so, he knocks on the head any lingering suggestion that language originated more than once.
One of the lines of evidence which show humanity’s African origins is that the farther you get from that continent, the less diverse, genetically speaking, people are. Being descended from small groups of relatively recent migrants, they are more inbred than their African forebears.
Dr Atkinson wondered whether the same might be true of languages. To find out, he looked not at genes but at phonemes. These are the smallest sounds which differentiate meaning (like the “th” in thin; replace it with “f” or “s” and the result is a different word). It has been known for a while that the less widely spoken a language is, the fewer the phonemes it has. So, as groups of people ventured ever farther from their African homeland, their phonemic repertoires should have dwindled, just as their genetic ones did.
To check whether this is the case, Dr Atkinson took 504 languages and plotted the number of phonemes in each (corrected for recent population growth, when significant) against the distance between the place where the language is spoken and 2,500 putative points of origin, scattered across the world. The relationship that emerges suggests the actual point of origin is in central or southern Africa (see chart), and that all modern languages do, indeed, have a common root.
That fits nicely with the idea that being able to speak and be spoken to is a specific adaptation—a virtual organ, if you like—that is humanity’s killer app in the struggle for biological dominance. Once it arose, Homo sapiens really could go forth and multiply and fill the Earth.
The details of this virtual organ are the subject of Dr Dunn’s paper. Confusingly, though, for this neat story of human imperialism, his result challenges the leading hypothesis about the nature of the language organ itself.
Grammar or just rhetoric?
The originator of that hypothesis is Noam Chomsky, a linguist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dr Chomsky argues that the human brain comes equipped with a hard-wired universal grammar—a language instinct, in the elegant phrase of his one-time colleague Steven Pinker. This would explain why children learn to speak almost effortlessly.
The problem with the idea of a language instinct is that languages differ not just in their vocabularies, which are learned, but in their grammatical rules, which are the sort of thing that might be expected to be instinctive. Dr Chomsky’s response is that this diversity, like the diversity of vocabulary, is superficial. In his opinion grammar is a collection of modules, each containing assorted features. Switching on a module activates all these features at a stroke. You cannot pick and choose within a module.
For instance, languages in which verbs precede objects will always have relative clauses after nouns; a language cannot have one but not the other. A lot of similar examples were collected by Joseph Greenberg, a linguist based at Stanford, who died in 2001. And, though Greenberg himself attributed his findings to general constraints on human thought rather than to language-specific switches in the brain, his findings also agree with the Chomskyan view of the world. Truly testing that view, though, is hard. The human brain cannot easily handle the connections that need to be made to do so. Dr Dunn therefore offered the task to a computer. And what he found surprised him.
Place your bets
To find out which linguistic features travel together, and might thus be parts of Chomskyan modules, means drawing up a reliable linguistic family tree. That is tricky. Unlike biologists, linguists do not have fossils to guide them through the past (apart from a few thousand years of records from the few tongues spoken by literate societies). Also, languages can crossbreed in a way that species do not. English, for example, is famously a muddle of German, Norse and medieval French. As a result, linguists often disagree about which tongues belong to a particular family.
To leap this hurdle, Dr Dunn began by collecting basic vocabulary terms—words for body parts, kinship, simple verbs and the like—for four large language families that all linguists agree are real. These are Indo-European, Bantu, Austronesian (from South-East Asia and the Pacific) and Uto-Aztecan (the native vernaculars of the Americas). These four groups account for more than a third of the 7,000 or so tongues spoken around the world today.
For each family, Dr Dunn and his team identified sets of cognates. These are etymologically related words that pop up in different languages. One set, for example, contains words like “night”, “Nacht” and “nuit”. Another includes “milk” and “Milch”, but not “lait”. The result is a multidimensional Venn diagram that records the overlaps between languages.
Which is fine for the present, but not much use for the past. To substitute for fossils, and thus reconstruct the ancient branches of the tree as well as the modern-day leaves, Dr Dunn used mathematically informed guesswork. The maths in question is called the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. As its name suggests, this spins the software equivalent of a roulette wheel to generate a random tree, then examines how snugly the branches of that tree fit the modern foliage. It then spins the wheel again, to tweak the first tree ever so slightly, at random. If the new tree is a better fit for the leaves, it is taken as the starting point for the next spin. If not, the process takes a step back to the previous best fit. The wheel whirrs millions of times until such random tweaking has no discernible effect on the outcome.
When Dr Dunn fed the languages he had chosen into the MCMC casino, the result was several hundred equally probable family trees. Next, he threw eight grammatical features, all related to word order, into the mix, and ran the game again.
The results were unexpected. Not one correlation persisted across all language families, and only two were found in more than one family. It looks, then, as if the correlations between grammatical features noticed by previous researchers are actually fossilised coincidences passed down the generations as part of linguistic culture. Nurture, in other words, rather than nature. If Dr Dunn is correct, that leaves Dr Chomsky’s ideas in tatters, and raises questions about the very existence of a language organ. You may be sure, though, that the Chomskyan heavy artillery will be making its first ranging shots in reply, even as you read this article. Watch this space for further developments.